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New Yorkers will learn the identity of their new city leader this election day, in a race that will determine who governs and defends the country's most populous metropolis at a moment when the former president has threatened to deploy armed forces to the city.

Against that backdrop, New York has witnessed a mayoral election that has pitted two distinctly opposing Democratic figures against each other. The election has turned into an increasingly bitter face-off, marked by alleged racial bias and Islamophobia, but it is the political differences between the two main candidates that could have major implications for how the party fares in next year's congressional races.

The Rising Progressive

On the left side is the democratic socialist, the 34-year-old progressive candidate whose meteoric rise and people-powered movement has brought international attention. Representing the old guard is the former governor, the ex- Democratic New York governor now campaigning independently – and enjoying the support of ultra-rich donors and big business.

As the election approaches, it is the progressive, the one-time underdog who beat his opponent in the Democratic primary who is firmly installed as the leading candidate. Mamdani, who has run on a platform of economic justice and pledged to freeze rent for about two million New Yorkers, has outpaced his rival by significant margins across all surveys conducted in October, and it is very much the progressive's election to lose.

A Bitter Contest

However, the former governor, who stepped down as the state's leader in 2021 amid accusations of sexual harassment, has stated clearly he will battle to the end, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt fashion. He has criticized his opponent's goals as unachievable, and in the final stretch chuckled along as a radio host made Islamophobic remarks about Mamdani, who is a Muslim. Recently, the independent was strongly criticized as bigoted after sharing an artificial intelligence video that included a slew of racist stereotypes and showed his opponent releasing a convicts.

It's been a particularly ugly end to an election that could be critical to the direction that the Democratic party, struggling in its response to the former president's authoritarian grabs, takes in the near future.

National Implications

If Mamdani wins convincingly, the party establishment who have refused to endorse his bid will be forced to reckon with a platform that has appealed to voters' frustration at inequality, inflation and the political elite. It would be hard for the Senate leader and Hakeem Jeffries not to adopt at least a portion of the candidate's progressive proposals about affordability, given the fresh face has generated an excitement within the Democratic ranks perhaps not witnessed since Bernie Sanders campaigned for the White House in 2016.

However, should Cuomo, who had been predicted to win easily in the June primary, achieve a remarkable riches-to-rags-to-riches victory, it could cement national Democrats' current model of cautious, lackluster opposition – a strategy that has angered grassroots members. A NYC defeat of Mamdani's progressive, positive message could persuade party leaders that the best plan is to remain in the political center – even as surveys show the present version of the Democratic party is widely disliked across the country.

Voter Enthusiasm

Residents of New York appear to favor the Mamdani vision. Polls show that his backers are far more enthusiastic about their choice than Cuomo backers, something that has been evident during the race. Mamdani's engaging content on social media, his optimistic vision for New York and his readiness to actually get out and connect with voters in the metropolis has attracted an army of over fifty thousand volunteers, many of them youth or new participants.

Negative Tactics

Yet, the former governor, 67, continues to fight. And with the stakes stacked against him, the ex-leader has turned to negative campaigning in the final days.

After spending months throwing basically everything at Mamdani to see what might resonate, the independent has concentrated on attacking the candidate directly. He has labelled his rival, who was of Ugandan origin to Indian parents, an “extremist”, and appeared on Fox Business for an discussion with Maria Bartiromo, where the candidate claimed New York “will not survive” his opponent as city leader. It reached a nadir recently, when Cuomo laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said the candidate would “cheer” another 9/11-style incident.

Political Landscape

This strategy echoes much of what Trump, who has deployed the national guard to the capital and warned to do the same to NYC, has said about the progressive, and maybe that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A set of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who contributed to the Republican in the last presidential race, have invested heavily into trying to get Cuomo elected, as other powerful voices have urged Curtis Sliwa to withdraw from the race.

Political Histories

For the his team, and his billionaire supporters, are worried, it should never have come to this. When Mamdani, one of one hundred fifty state legislators, launched his campaign for mayor in October 2024, not many had heard of him, and in reality, barely anyone even paid attention.

The former governor, by contrast, eased his way into the race in March 2025 and became the instant favorite. He was the big beast who apparently held all the advantages. The quintessential political insider, he had wed a political dynasty member and worked in a Democratic presidency. He became the state's leader in over a decade ago, seventeen years after his father, Mario Cuomo, stepped down from the same position.

Mamdani, who was elected to the state legislature in 2020, does not have the same political heritage. But his dedication to providing free buses and free childcare – along with the rent control promise – offer a brighter outlook of the future than his opponent's dire warnings about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his vow to hire more police officers.

Campaign Controversies

Still, Mamdani has encountered some challenges in recent days, after footage emerged appearing to show him suggesting the New York police department and the Israel Defense Forces were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the NYPD is on your neck, it’s been influenced by the IDF,” Mamdani said in the recording, filmed at a DSA convention in recent years. The progressive, a longtime critic of Israel who has said the country is engaging in atrocities in the Palestinian territory, suggested he was criticizing joint training exercises between the NYPD and Israeli forces.

Powerful Moment

As the race closes, the candidate appears to have won empathy and backing, however, for his reaction to his opponent's increasing rhetoric.

Mamdani responded to the independent's terrorism comments in an heartfelt recording. In it, Mamdani recalled how, when he first ran for the legislature, a Muslim uncle suggested to him that he did not have to disclose about his religion. It was a realization, Mamdani said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been taught “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the shadows of our city. That it is in those shadows alone where Muslims could embrace their full identities, and that if we were to emerge from those seclusion, then it is in those shadows that we must leave our faith.”

Speaking to the actions of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has alleged Mamd